Friday, September 30, 2011

A third industrial revolution?

Noted American economist Jeremy Rifkin has some food for thought in his new book on what he calls The Third Industrial revolution. Check out:

'The Third Industrial Revolution is the last of the great Industrial Revolutions and will lay the foundational infrastructure for an emerging collaborative age. The forty year build-out of the TIR infrastructure will create hundreds of thousands of new businesses and hundreds of millions of new jobs...

'In the coming half century, the conventional, centralized business operations of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions will increasingly be subsumed by the distributed business practices of the Third Industrial Revolution; and the traditional, hierarchical organization of economic and political power will give way to lateral power organized nodally across society...

'The Third Industrial Revolution offers the hope that we can arrive at a sustainable post-carbon era by mid-century. We have the science, the technology, and the game plan to make it happen...

'The five pillars of the Third Industrial Revolution are (1) shifting to renewable energy; (2) transforming the building stock of every continent into micro-power plants to collect renewable energies on-site; (3) deploying hydrogen and other storage technologies in every building and throughout the infrastructure to store intermittent energies; (4) using Internet technology to transform the power grid of every continent into an energy-sharing intergrid that acts just like the Internet (when millions of buildings are generating a small amount of energy locally, on-site, they can sell surplus back to the grid and share electricity with their continental neighbors); and (5) transitioning the transport fleet to electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles that can buy and sell electricity on a smart, continental, interactive power grid.

For more, read on

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Future technology

So, are electric vehicles going to be as widely feasible as we would like it to be?Nearly every major automobile manufacturer in the world appears ready to market some flavor of plug-in vehicle with in the next few years. So the odds are piled high for sure.

A recent study concluded that together these manufacturers have committed to producing some 840,000 electric vehicles by 2013. The demand for lithium-ion automobile batteries is projected to increase from 2.4 gigawatt hours (GWh) this year to 18 GWh by 2013 - a seven fold increase. The rapid increase in lithium-ion battery production -- 20 new plants are under construction -- is expected to drive the cost of these batteries down from $800-1000/kWh today to the vicinity of $350 by the end of the decade.

Good news. But, where is the research on batteries heading? On small short-term batteries or bulky long-term ones?

Tom Whipple writes in Energy Bulletin, quoting a study by Carnegie-Mellon that for the immediate future electric cars with small battery packs and limited electric range offer more benefits to society than larger packs that attempt to substitute completely for conventional fuels.

Not only do the smaller shorter range battery packs such as those found in conventional hybrids or the newer plug-in electrics cost far less, they also weigh much less. Large electrical batteries become a lot more dead weight that has to be carried around after discharged than do smaller batteries. In the long run cheaper, long-lived, longer range batteries will of course prove superior. But it will take time for research to fructify and allow scalability.

Meanwhile, another major laboratory announced that its technology could lead to electric cars with a 300 mile range, while another says its titanium dioxide microspheres will allow batteries to be charged to 50 percent of capacity in 6 minutes.

Work is underway to standardize wireless recharging systems that would eliminate the need to actually plug-in a vehicle to recharge its batteries. Simply parking an appropriately equipped vehicle in an appropriately equipped parking space would allow the recharging of the batteries to take place! fancy and more about comfort than going green!

Cynics still insist that research apart, such technology will be too costly for 7 billion to afford anyway. Well, even if 3 billion could, that would be a welcome relief for the environment, right?

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Slow uptake on efficiency scheme

The Mayor of London Boris Johnson urged Londoners yesterday to take up the energy efficiency RE:NEW programme, which is being rolled out to homes in nine more boroughs, according to Energy Efficiency News.

The programme, which was originally targeted at improving 200,000 homes in the capital by 2012 through measures such as low-energy light bulbs, stand-by switches and more substantial measures like cavity wall and loft insulation, has had a slow start with only around 9000 homes helped to date.

Last month, new funding enabled the programme to be rolled out to 1742 homes in Barking and Dagenham, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest. Now, it is being expanded to Wandsworth, Croydon, Brent, Ealing, Harrow, Hillingdon, Redbridge, Tower Hamlets and Hounslow.

The programme involves a full home energy survey, which includes identifying whether loft or cavity wall insulation can be installed and whether homeowners are eligible for any grants. Participants receive a tailor-made report and can have a range of free energy saving measured installed.

“Retrofitting London’s homes and buildings has a multiplicity of benefits for all of us. It makes sound economic sense by saving you money on your fuel bills, it reduces the pumping out of CO2 and it creates much-needed jobs. I would urge Londoners to take advantage of this free service,” said Johnson.

Homes taking part in the programme can typically save around £154 on their annual energy and water bills, but the latest round of price rises could now put this figure at £180.

The programme is being delivered by London Councils and the Energy Saving Trust and all 32 of the capitals boroughs have signed up to participate.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Melting peaks

The ghost of the glaciers is once again rising! In the Himalayas, the ice is melting as evidenced by dozens of swelling milky blue lakes that threaten to burst down on to villages when their ice dams melt. A quarter of the world's people rely on Himalayan meltwater, which helps feed the great rivers that plunge down into Asia.

However, this is not scientific research as much as what has been seen and described by the local sherpas and natives. Perhaps there is a big knowledge gap about the Himalayas as there is little beyond satellite imagery as satellite proof. But if local evidence is enough, the glaciers are melting.

Between them the mountains of the Himalayas, the Hindu Kush, Karakorams, Pamirs and Tien Shan store more ice than anywhere outside the north and south poles. There are believed to be about 15,000 glaciers across the Himalayas – 3,800 or so in Nepal alone, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, in Kathmandu.

Last week saw the annual summer minimum of the Arctic ice cap, which has now shrunk to the lowest level satellites have ever recorded. The ice at the roof of the human world is faring little better: mountain glaciers are diminishing at accelerating and historic rates. The lower glaciers are doomed. Kilimanjaro may be bare within a decade, with the Pyrenees set to be ice-free by mid-century and three-quarters of the glaciers in the Alps gone by the same date.

Are we changing the face of the planet irretrievably?

Friday, September 23, 2011

Get your panel ready

Global PV prices seem to be crashing every day. Innovations too are picking speed.

Incorporating the latest research into how plants, algae and some bacteria use quantum mechanics to optimise energy production via photosynthesis, scientists have set out how to design molecular "circuitry" that is 10 times smaller than the thinnest electrical wire in computer processors. Published in Nature Chemistry, the report discusses how tiny molecular energy grids could capture, direct, regulate and amplify raw solar energy.

Solar fuel production often starts with the energy from light being absorbed by an assembly of molecules. The energy is stored fleetingly as vibrating electrons and then transferred to a suitable reactor. In natural systems energy from sunlight is captured by 'coloured' molecules called dyes or pigments, but is only stored for a billionth of a second. This leaves little time to route the energy from pigments to the molecular machinery that produces fuel or electricity.

The key to transferring and storing energy very quickly is to harness the collective quantum properties of antennae, which are made up of just a few tens of pigments, notes the team.The basic components of the antenna are efficient light absorbing molecules. These photo-energy absorbers should be appropriately distributed to guarantee that there is an even probability of converting sun energy into vibrating electrons across the whole antennae.

There soon will come a day when all the sun's energy falling will be converted to usable energy. Almost 100 percent efficiency. Isnt that exciting too?

Time to dash into the past?

There never is dearth for exciting news on the planet. A NASA satellite may come crashing down tonight. If you are lucky you may be hit! But then maybe you can go back to the past and become your parent if what scientists at CERN think they see is true – a neutrino traveling faster than light! And then there is the Arctic sea route opening up thanks to shrinking ice (!) and bringing trade prospects to a world still caught up in consuming!

In a world struggling to lay hands on rare earth, so far confined to China mostly, it turns out Afghanistan may be loaded with the stuff. And the UK has discovered huge shale gas deposits in its northwest in Lancashire. Fracking concerns are not an issue when you are sitting on fuel, right?

Forget that global carbon dioxide emissions increased by 45 percent between 1990 and 2010, reaching a record high 33 billion tons last year, according to a report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center.

The report said that increased energy efficiency, renewable energy, and nuclear power are not compensating for a surge in emissions from developing countries, most notably China — with a 257 percent increase in CO2 emissions from 1990 to 210 — and India, whose emissions increased by 180 percent.

By contrast, the European Union’s emissions declined by 7 percent from 1990 to 2010, and Russia’s dropped 27 percent. U.S. emissions increased by 5 percent from 1990 to 2010. After a slowdown in CO2 emissions at the height of the recession in 2008 and 2009, global emissions saw a record-breaking increase of 5.8 percent from 2009 to 2010, the report said.

Maybe it's time for a mass exodus to the past, on the wings of some superfast neutrino. The present seems to be getting unlivable.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Demand much ahead

Oil prices have been down and up recently. Let's look at what the prospects are. According to the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for September its preliminary estimate for world oil production in August was 89.1 million b/d despite the loss of 1.6 million b/d of Libyan production. The Agency, however, maintains that the demand for oil has been running ahead of global production since the second half 2010 when the demand for oil surged.

The difference between supply and demand, which for a while amounted to 1.4 million b/d, has been coming out of global stocks which have been slowly falling in recent months. It is this imbalance between supply and demand that is likely the root of our high oil and gas prices. If demand growth continues at its present or even somewhat reduced pace, demand should be pushing up against 92 million b/d by the end of next year. Any further increase in demand would come from stockpiles at much higher prices and probably much economic disruption, notes the Energy Bulletin.

There are a number of countries that will be critical to what happens in the next two or three years. The most important of these is China where demand is now approaching 10 million b/d and is forecast to grow at about 6 percent this year and next after surging to 11 percent in 2010. India which is consuming about 3.5 million b/d continues to increase its demand at about 4 percent per annum. Demand from the Middle Eastern oil producers is also an interesting story. Although Saudi oil production is now pushing 10 million b/d, much of the increase this summer is being burned domestically to produce the power and water.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Rethinking the wheel

Sometimes, a villain ends up being the hero, and not only in a suspense thriller! Take the incandescent bulb we grew up with. It has a poor repurtation when it comes to lighting efficiency. But as they say, it all boils down to perception! Look at the bulb as a heat bulb and it becomes an efficient device.

It can be used in passive houses to provide the very small amount of additional heating well-designed buildings require. It can also be used in combination with heat pumps to provide that required extra bit of heating during the coldest and darkest winter days. The devices are extremely cheap, easy to install, and they fit into any E27 socket. Moreover, they are totally scalable: you can install as many as you want anywhere in the house, and each of them can have a heating power ranging between 25 and 300 W.

Unlike heaters, these do not disturb the power quality on the grid nor do they transmit disturbing electro-magnetic waves. A German engineer has decided to capture this market!

So, would you say the bulb is a hero or villain??

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Climate and the corporate world

Sustainability may still be a fad, but going by a recent study, many companies are taking serious note of climate change.

The 10th annual Carbon Disclosure Project, which analysed responses from 396 of the 500 largest companies in the world, found more than two-thirds (68%) now say they put climate change central to their business, compared with 48% last year.

Almost half (45%) are now reporting they have cut their greenhouse gas emissions as a result of steps they have taken to tackle carbon, up from less than a fifth (19%) in 2010.

The Carbon Disclosure Project report, written by PwC, also said there was a link between higher stock market performance and action on climate change, with those that have a strong focus on the issue providing investors with approximately double the average return over the period 2005 to 2011.

The CDP report suggests that rising oil prices, risky energy supplies and growing recognition of the returns on investment in cutting emissions have made climate change a more important issue in the boardroom.

It says that 59% of companies reported that the cost of schemes to reduce emissions such as energy saving projects in buildings, installing low-carbon power and changing the behaviour of staff, were recouped within three years.

Sure looks like we are in changing times.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The long-term view

If there is one word that has raced up the popularity charts with anyone and everyone, it is the word 'sustainability'. Everyone sprinkles a dash of sustainability to whatever they do, sell or recommend. And now it is catching the fancy of the corporate world, thanks to the efforts of the late Ray Anderson, the carpet-tile philosopher and corporate guru of sustainability.

It was a chance reading of Paul Hawken's Ecology of Commerce that turned Anderson from top carpet maker to eco-carpet maker. A chapter on extinction of species. He decided that his company Interface would leave no print on the blue or green carpet of the planet. No emissions, no waste! And he did it. Renewables rather than fossil fuel; carpet tiles out of carbohydrate polymers rather than petroleum; and recycling old-carpet sludge into pellets that could be used as backing were some steps.

By 2007 the company was, he reckoned, about halfway up “Mount Sustainability". Greenhouse-gas emissions by absolute tonnage were down 92% since 1995, water usage down 75%, and 74,000 tonnes of used carpet had been recovered from landfills. The $400m he was saving each year by making no scrap and no off-quality tiles more than paid for the R&D and the process changes. As much as 25% of the company’s new material came from “post-consumer recycling".

A serious business can be defined by the sutainable practices it follows. Simply because it shows the business has a long term vision too.

Back in 1983, the Brundtland Commission convened by the UN, defined ‘Sustainable development’ as development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Also for businesses.

Sustainable goods and services may cost a little more if viewed from narrow, short-term perspective. But, over the long term, sustainability is proven to be financially attractive.

Forests of life

Sometimes, studies seem ludicrous given that they endorse what is generally accepted by common sense. But still, an academic verification of sense seems to be the way of our times.

Decades of forest destruction, we are told, have turned once-productive lands into desert across the Horn of Africa, worsening a devastating famine that has killed tens of thousands of people in Somalia and elsewhere, forestry experts say.

A new study by the Center for International Forestry Research, conducted in 25 countries, shows that forests provide about one-quarter of household income for people living in or near them, offering a critical defense against poverty.

In parched regions like the Horn of Africa, forests help retain moisture and soil nutrients, providing a defense against wind erosion and a source of food and energy.

According to an international coalition, the clear-cutting of forests and degradation of land across the region have done more than the drought to convert once-productive grazing areas into a barren landscape.

The group, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, has called for increased investments in reforestation and agroforestry projects across the region, saying similar efforts in Kenya and Niger have revitalized forests and provided critical food and other resources.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Positives of burning coal!

Natural gas has been recommended as the best transition fuel as the world moves into clean energy in a phased manner. But natural gas has not been without its own share of woes.

Although the burning of natural gas emits far less carbon dioxide than coal, a new study concludes that a greater reliance on natural gas would fail to significantly slow down climate change. While coal use causes warming through emission of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, it also releases comparatively large amounts of sulfates and other particles that, although detrimental to the environment, cool the planet by blocking incoming sunlight.

The situation is further complicated by uncertainty over the amount of methane that leaks from natural gas operations. Methane is an especially potent greenhouse gas.

A worldwide, partial shift from coal to natural gas would slightly accelerate climate change through at least 2050, even if no methane leaked from natural gas operations, and through as late as 2140 if there were substantial leaks. After that, the greater reliance on natural gas would begin to slow down the increase in global average temperature, but only by a few tenths of a degree.

The burning of coal releases more carbon dioxide than other fossil fuels, as well as comparatively high levels of other pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particles such as ash. Since natural gas emits lower levels of these pollutants, some energy experts have proposed greater reliance on that fuel source as a way to slow down global warming and reduce the impacts of energy use on the environment.

But the effects of natural gas on climate change have been difficult to calculate. Recent studies have come to conflicting conclusions about whether a shift to natural gas would significantly slow the rate of climate change, in part because of uncertainty about the extent of methane leaks.

The study which used computer simulations that an increase advantage in shift to natural gas is offset by the loss of cooling due to particulates! Remember these particulates are bad for health, but have this effect on climate. Just goes to show we are far away from mastering our environment!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Arctic ice melting faster



New data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that extent of Arctic sea ice in August melted off to the second lowest amount for the month on record. Throughout the month sea ice was near levels witnessed in 2007, when the yearly record low was set. It's expected that sometime by mid-September the annual minimum will be set.

On August 31, 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was 4.63 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles). This is 100,000 square kilometers (38,600 square miles) higher than the previous record low for the same day of the year, set in 2007. As of September 5, ice extent had fallen below the minimum ice extents in September 2010 and 2008 (previously the third- and second-lowest minima in the satellite record). If ice stopped declining in extent today it would be the second-lowest minimum extent in the satellite record.

Not only will the melting ice spell doom for the polar bears and other life, but it will also add to global warming. This is because the white colour of ice reflcets sunlight back but once melted the darker waters will absorb heat. Well, there are some who will heave sighs of relief as drilling in the Arctic will not need special ice-breaking ships, etc!

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Solar PV fastest growing industry

In 2010, the photovoltaic (PV) industry production more than doubled and reached a world-wide production volume of 23.5 gigawatt (GW) of photovoltaic modules, according to the tenth edition of the JRC PV Status Report.

Since 1990, photovoltaic module production has increased more than 500-fold from 46 megawatts (MW) to 23.5 GW in 2010, which makes photovoltaics one of the fastest-growing industries at present.

In 2010, the world-wide photovoltaic production more than doubled, driven by major increases in Europe. For 2010 the annual market volume of newly-installed solar photovoltaic electricity systems varies between 17 and 19 GW, depending on estimates. This represents mostly the grid-connected photovoltaic market, as there are no reliable estimates available for the non grid-connected market.

The report, published by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows that with a cumulative installed capacity of over 29 GW, the European Union is leading in PV installations. By the end of 2010, European photovoltaic installations provided more than 70% of the total world-wide solar photovoltaic electricity generation capacity.

Current solar cell technologies are well established with sufficient efficiency and energy output for at least 25 years of lifetime. This reliability, in addition to the increasing potential of electricity interruption from grid overloads, and the rise of electricity prices from conventional energy sources, add to the attractiveness of photovoltaic systems.

A special feature is the dramatic price reduction for solar modules by almost 50% over the last three years. This can be explained by the evolution from a supply to a demand-driven market and the resulting over-capacity for solar modules. Business analysts predict that investments in PV technology could double from € 35-40 billion in 2010 to over € 70 billion in 2015, while they expect prices for consumers to continuously decrease.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Tried and tested

A recent study in the US looked at a comparison of CFLs and LEDs. The claim has been that LEDs are more efficient than CFLs. LEDs also cost more than CFLs but they last longer, so you’ll make up the initial cost over the lifetime of the bulb. Are these facts really true?

What the survey found was that lab conditions differed from 'real world' conditions. In a lab, which can be controlled for the best possible conditions, light can be generated at optimal efficiency. Because manufacturers are able to utilize components that are made to work together, they can claim to produce results with greater efficiency.

For instance, a leading LED-chip manufacturer announced they had achieved an efficiency of 231 lumens per watt in an LED chip. However, this was conducted in a lab where technicians were able to use lighting fixtures capable of producing such high output. In the “real world,” this LED-chip manufacturer does not sell a LED lighting fixture with a claimed efficiency over 75 lumens per watt.

Therefore, among other factors, consumers would not be able to produce as high efficiency in their own homes.

For the study, they used two roughly equivalent CFL and LED lamps that would commonly be used in the home. When comparing the two on paper, the efficiency of the bulbs is nearly identical, within 0.5 lumens per watt. However, with the “real world” being taken into consideration, there are certain environmental and consumer factors that make a case for both.

One factor is cost. If your primary concern is price, the CFL would be a better choice. Although the CFL has a shorter lifespan, even if you replaced the CFL three times to achieve an equivalent lifespan to the LED, you’d still have spent lesser than on the LED.

The bottom line is that in a household setting, where optimal components and ideal conditions cannot be controlled, the LED and CFL light bulb are very close competitors. The decision for one over the other should be made based on the need.

But in terms of quality of lumens delivered, ask any electrical engineer and he will tell you that the good old T5 FTL (or tubelight) is the best! While a CFL gives 50-65lumen/watt, the T5 or T8 gives up to 95 lumen/watt. Lamp life too is lesser for CFLs.

Then why are organizations connected to energy efficiency promoting CFLs? Any idea?

Less leads to more

Is the Jevons Paradox true? Is energy efficiency really a dud?

Let's look at what the Paradox says. Jevons Paradox is named after William Jevons, who observed in the 19th century that an increase in the efficiency of using coal to produce energy tended to increase consumption, rather than reduce it. Why? Because, Jevons argued, the cheaper price of coal-produced energy encouraged people to find innovative new ways to consume energy.

Jevons paradox, is really an extreme statement about an effect economists commonly observe called "rebound": some of the gains from energy efficiency are lost because people's consumption rises in response to lower prices.

For instance, when government requires more fuel-efficient cars, aggregate demand by cars for gas is less. So prices tend to decline, and (to a limited effect) that lower price motivates a few people to drive a little more than they might have, perhaps taking advantage of the lower prices to take an extra weekend trip.

Thus the gains from efficiency is lost in increased consumption. A classic example is lighting, which has gotten vastly cheaper per unit as the world has moved from lamp oil to candles to incandescent bulbs to fluorescent bulbs. Yet people now use more resources for lighting than we ever have in the past, since we have chosen to put lights almost everywhere.

Some opponents of the paradox say this is just a convenient theory that allows governments not to do anyhting about efficiency. Perhaps. But surely there is a truth in the theory. Human tendency has been to consume more of what is saved. Once your spending budget is fixed, any amount released from one product inevitably ends up in another basket, right?

Write in your views, while we bring you another post on efficiency.