Tuesday, November 30, 2010

What's news? Climate, naturally

The talk everywhere (besides the various scams which have become an established part of our lives) these days is about Cancun in Mexico. It is time again to talk climate. That's it - TALK is the catchword. No action.

The two-week negotiating session started yesterday. Is there hope? Not really, but at least there will be ideas, new suggestions, etc. Accepted or not!

After two weeks of deliberations that at times grew rancorous last year, Obama and leaders from Brazil, India, South Africa, and China hammered out an eleventh-hour deal that came to be known as the Copenhagen Accord. It was more a statement of intent than an actual plan, and it left quite a few countries unsatisfied.

But the Copenhagen Accord at least solidified some basic commitments. Countries agreed that they would aim to keep planetary warming to under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F), and would each put forward domestic plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In the months since then, 138 countries have either formally signed on to the accord or signaled that they would -- and combined they are responsible for more than 86 percent of global emissions.

Industrialized nations also committed to raising $10 billion each year for the next three years for so-called "fast-start" funding to help developing nations cut emissions and adapt to the changes already taking place. There was an additional agreement to establish a long-term fund of $100 billion per year by 2020 to meet those goals. Specifically, there will need to be progress on how countries will formalize the commitments they made last year, and how to keep track of what each country is actually doing when it comes to cutting emissions.

We better hurry up. Going by a fresh report from British scientists, if the Earth's temperature rises by 7 degrees Fahrenheit the rest of this century -- and some researchers think that could happen as soon as 2060 -- up to a billion people would have to be relocated. And another 3 billion could end up without access to water supplies.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Tighten belts to fill more!

In the developing world, reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen as being in conflict with alleviating poverty. A clean energy development initiative in rural Nicaragua, however, demonstrates that there are cost effective steps developing nations can take to reduce carbon emissions and at the same time help the rural poor reduce their energy expenses, according to researchers from the University of California, Berkeley.

The villages of Orinoco and Marshall Point are off the nation's electric grid and obtain their power from diesel generators. Until last year, however, the homes had no electricity meters; homeowners were billed according to the appliances they owned. This encouraged indiscriminate energy use, with lights, televisions and radios remaining on, even when not being used.

After the government installed meters, however, energy use dropped by 28 percent, and many people's electric bills also dropped.

Villagers were offered two efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFL) in exchange for two incandescent bulbs. This program reduced household energy use by an additional 17 percent, on average.

The net result was less diesel burned, even allowing for the fact that the community's reduced energy needs allowed the local energy supplier to run its generators two extra hours each day, providing longer service to customers. In the month after the conservation campaign, electricity bills dropped in 37 percent of the households in Orinoco.

Microgrids like the one in Nicaragua, often powered by diesel generators, are found by the thousands around the world, particularly in India and China. They're dirty, have high emissions, high energy costs and questionable reliability, so targeting these microgrids has the potential for improving access to energy services for those communities while at the same time, for the money invested, getting greater reductions in carbon emissions than you might get investing in similar measures where the cost of energy is cheaper, such as in the cities.

There are two arguments to this kind of scenario. Should we remove the subsidies for the poor to discourage wastage? Or is there better way to monitor the same?

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Base bias

We all pay much heed to baseload power and the need to have some source catering to that need. But some people like David Mills believe baseload can be dispensed with. The eminent solar energy technology developer, has dreamed of creating a new model for an energy system that does away with the conventional design of massive baseload infrastructure. Using hourly data for energy use of the entire United States economy in 2006, Mills will demonstrate how it could have been powered almost exclusively by wind and solar.

The traditional paradigm of flatline baseload does not exist in Mills' scenario, but the replacement for baseload power is not another baseload, it’s a system of flexible and inflexible energy mechanisms based around wind and solar and other sources.

The first premise was that there was enough solar and wind that, in combination, could run the US economy. The second was that solar and wind would be connected with a new electricity transmission system, using high voltage direct current lines for the spine of the network, which will allow more flows and result in considerably reduced transmission losses.China is installing more HVDC lines than any other country in the world – looking to link coal plants with the Three Gorges dam and wind and solar from the north and west of the country!

Any opinions?

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Right to access

Looking for efficient or power saving devices may be a prerogative for the world's haves, but for millions who do not have access to electricity, these are irrelevant. When basic healthcare is denied due to lack of power facilities, when schooling is a gruelling task by candle lights, discussions on smart meters and power losses seem meaningless.

So what can be done? Do you think it is time access to power is declared a basic human right? Can we urge governments to take on this job of providing basic minimal power to these areas still in the dark? Should that not be top on the priority of governments?

What do you think? How can this be done? Where government funds are the problem, should private public partnerships be the way forward?

Joint solar plants

If you live in a hot place, what better way than to tap solar energy? But things are not that easy. How amenable are the rooftops to place panels on them? How about trees which end up being cut to allow more sunfall?

beating this impasse is an innovative idea from a San Francisco company, CleanPath Ventures. The firm is promoting a solution to allow homeowners to keep their trees and go solar at the same time. CleanPath plans to expand its existing solar farm on the city’s outskirts and then sell “garden plots” to homeowners who would own the electricity generated by their patch of photovoltaic panels. Apartment dwellers and other residents whose homes are not suitable for rooftop solar arrays would also be able to own a piece of the power plant.

If you moved down the block, you’d take the electricity production with you just like if you make an investment in a community garden, wherever you live you’ll benefit from what’s grown in the garden.

Community solar power plants are seen as a way to expand the availability of renewable energy while taking advantage of the economies of scale that result from installing thousands of solar panels in a central location rather than scattered on thousands of individual homes.

Look at energy or waste or water, the future holds promise for community initiatives rather than solo initiatives.

Just not enough

As attention turns to next week's climate change meet at Cancun, Mexico, UN research shows that the pledges and promises made last year by 80 countries to reduce climate change emissions fall well short of what is needed to hold the global temperature rise to 2C and avoid the worst consequences of global warming.

The findings by 30 leading scientists suggest that if countries do everything they have promised, there will still be a 5bn tonne gap per year between their ambition and what the science says is needed. This gap, said the UN, is the equivalent of the emissions released by all the world's vehicles in a year.

Many countries have committed themselves to holding temperature rises to no more than 2C (3.6F) by 2080 but to achieve this global emissions must be reduced from 56bn tonnes annually today to 44bn tonnes by 2020.

If only the weakest pledges made last year in the Copenhagen accord are implemented, emissions could be lowered to 53bn tonnes a year by 2020, leaving a gap of 9bn tonnes. In the best case, says the report, emissions could drop to 49bn tonnes, reducing the gap to 5bn. But if nothing is done, then the emissions gap would rise to 12bn tonnes by 2020 – roughly what all the world's power stations emit.

The report will be a key document at the meet, for sure.

Monday, November 22, 2010

The last frontier crumbling

Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have continued to rise according to a new study led by the University of Exeter.

Eight ice shelves have fully or partially collapsed along the Antarctic Peninsula, and the northwestern Antarctic Peninsula has warmed faster than virtually any place on Earth. The question now, is not whether Antarctica will begin to warm in earnest, but how rapidly.

The melting of Antarctica’s northernmost region — the Antarctic Peninsula — is already well underway, representing the first breach in an enormous citadel of cold that holds 90 percent of the world’s ice. No place on the fringes of Antarctica has warmed with the swiftness of the Antarctic Peninsula, which has seen winter temperatures rise by 11 deg F.

The most important link in the Antarctic food chain — ice-dependent Antarctic krill, on which just about every seabird or marine mammal in Antarctica feeds — also appears to be in decline. If global temperatures rise by 2 deg C, Adélie and emperor penguin colonies north of 70° South — comprising half of Antarctica’s 348,000 pairs of emperor penguins and three-quarters of the continent’s 2.5 million pairs of Adélies — are in jeopardy of marked decline or disappearance, largely because of severe decreases in pack-ice coverage and, particularly for emperors, ice thickness.

Friday, November 19, 2010

UK on track

The UK is on course to meet its 2020 renewables target, according to a new report from National Grid. According to the Transmission Networks Quarterly Connections Update, 31,950 MW of existing and proposed renewable energy generation capacity has connection agreements over the next decade.

Currently 4950 MW of renewable generation capacity is connected to the transmission network, with proposed projects as of the end of October this year totalling a further 27,000 MW. Together this will be sufficient to power over 20 million homes and would surpass the 29,000 MW estimated by the National Grid to be needed to meet the 2020 target of 15% of the country’s total energy demand from renewables.

However, the report cautions that the figures are only a step in the right direction and a complete reform of the market is the only way to ensure the right conditions for investment in future projects.

Scotland meanwhile is on course to achieve a 42% cut in emissions by 2020, based on 1990 levels, and is calling on the UK and EU to toughen up their emissions targets.

Europe is moving towards 100 percent renewables by 2050. It already has over 200 GW of installed renewable power.

Can this transition be effected in time and with the EROI one would like to have? That is the big question. Investment is important but not difficult to find once policy steers energy supply that way.

India to heat up sooner than later?

A new report forecasts that average temperatures in India could climb 2 degrees C within two decades, with even higher temperatures projected for some coastal regions. According to the Indian network for Climate Change Assessment, a group of more than 100 scientific organizations, the nation could see temperatures jump 1.7 to 2.3 degrees C by the 2030s compared to temperatures in the 1970s.

That temperature shift will likely mean more extreme weather, the study projects, with increasingly intense downpours but fewer days of rain overall, which would likely mean a greater likelihood of flooding and drought.

Meanwhile, another study recently had warned that some of the world’s fastest-growing economies — including India and Bangladesh — are also the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The nations at the most extreme risk are those already dealing with high poverty levels, dense populations, exposure to climate-related events, and a reliance on flood- or drought-prone agricultural lands, according the Climate Change Vulnerability Index.

While India is already one the world’s largest economies, its vulnerability to climate-related events could scare off foreign investment in the coming decades, the report says.

Juxtapose that with the prime minister's acknowledgement that India's rapidly growing economy and automotive industry could lead to a 40 percent increase in demand for hydrocarbon fuels in the next decade, and you have big trouble ahead.

In an era of energy security concerns and climate change immediacy, the wise thing would be to look at ways to conserve energy, especially fossil fuel based energy. Instead developing nations are galloping away with big, impractical solutions that invariably revolve around huge infrastructure projects that eat not only energy but also resources.

Local decentralised and small units would seem the sensible way ahead. Any thoughts?

Friday, November 12, 2010

More research on CCS needed

Leaks from carbon dioxide injected deep underground to help fight climate change could bubble up into drinking water aquifers near the surface, driving up levels of contaminants in the water tenfold or more in some places, according to a study by Duke University scientists.

Storing carbon dioxide deep below Earth's surface, a process known as geosequestration, is part of a suite of new carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies being developed by governments and industries worldwide to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions entering Earth's atmosphere. The still-evolving technologies are designed to capture and compress CO2, emissions at their source -- typically power plants and other industrial facilities -- and transport the CO2 to locations where it can be injected far below the Earth's surface for long-term storage.

But the technology involves many hurdles besides the aspect of a chemical unit next to a power plant! Will the areas chosen hold the gas or leak it eventually? How do we handle the loss of efficiency of plants when CCS is implemented? And like this study says, water contamination is another concern.

This shows that CCS will have to be studied more in detail before it becomes a way out. The study identified four markers that scientists can use to test for early warnings of potential carbon dioxide leaks. Along with changes in carbonate concentration and acidity of the water, concentrations of manganese, iron and calcium could all be used as geochemical markers of a leak, as their concentration increase within two weeks of exposure to CO2.

For now, we have to live with CO2 in the atmosphere!! Better be sure before we open yet another Pandoras box.

Just a second, let's think

Should costly electricity from the grid be used to run the ACs or some other fuel be used for such heating and cooling purposes? What kind of energy should be used for what activity - this should be a well thought out process, feel experts. For instance, in Germany where it is transport followed by residential sector that takes the biggest pie out the energy cake, how will renewable energy fit the bill, asks Prof Edgar Shicker of the Georg Simon Ohm University of Applied Sciences.

Which demand should be met with which source should be amongst the focus of planners instead of an en masse adoption of a new technology, feel many like him.

Simply because the solar intensity is high in India, should the nation go for solar PV power? Setting up huge infrastructure because land is available will be a lost cause if the same power has to be transmitted over large distances, incurring costs. Instead, one needs to study what kind of demand exists and what source fits the demand best. Right? This is also so for offshore windpower. Setting up the turbines in sea is fine, but what about the cost of bringing the power home to cities where the demand is most? Is it economically viable?

Subsidies that have good intentions will be exploited in the process. The story in EU where biofuels are given huge subsidies have seen huge transportation and carbon costs in importing the biofuel. Subsidies in India, both for water and power, have often resulted in scant respect for the dwindling resources. Should power be as subsidised as it is? But then which government is going to take an unpopular step? Bell the cat!

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Seeing through the romance

Coal fired plants and nuclear will not be going away in a hurry... It will not be possible for clean energy to displace fossil fuels before 2050... The romance with clean energy has to be tempered with practicality...

These were the messages that emerged from an interesting workshop organised by the Goethe Institut/Max Mueller Bhavan in Bangalore this week. Dealing with 'towards a substantial green energy supply for urban Karnataka' the seminar saw a lot of seemingly contradicting statements from its eminent speakers.

Prof J Srinivasan from the Divecha climate change centre pumped for solar PV given the solar intensities in the country. He however felt that policy must drive this thrust. The BERI spokesperson pushed for biomass, and Kredl noted its successes with water mills and gassifiers. However, Prof Edgar Schicker, Georg Simon Ohm University of Applied Sciences, Germany, had a different view. He urged caution before adopting any new clean technology that could end up 'ruining the environment'

For instance, he noted the production of PV modules involves the simultaneous generation of large amounts of toxic waste like sulphur hexafluoride. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is one of the most potent greenhouse gases.It is estimated that a ton of SF6 equals a greenhouse effect of 25,000t of CO2.

The production of crystalline silicon cells (c-Si), creates silicon dust waste known as kerf. Rinsing of wafers is estimated to result in the loss of 50% material in air and water. This can create inhalation issues for labourers. Silicon dust is harmful for inhalation. c-Si production involves refining silica at high temperatures to remove oxygen and make metallurgical-grade silicon. c-Si produces a highly explosive gas called silane gas, which can be highly dangerous. SO on...

The bigger issue according to the professor is the lack of planning which does not look at where the demand is before rushing in to set up plants. More of that in our next post...

Simply unwilling!

The International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook, released yesterday promises :) that oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to dominate world energy consumption, whether we conduct business as usual, adopt greener policies, or make heroic efforts to keep carbon concentrations in the atmosphere below 450 ppm so as to prevent temperatures from rising more than 2 more degrees celsius in this century.

The agency still expects world energy consumption to grow sharply, with fast-developing countries accounting for the lion's share of additional energy demand. Among fossil fuels, reliance on natural gas will grow the most strongly, an estimated 44 percent by 2035--more than a third of that increase being "unconventional" (shale) gas. Though consumption of coal and oil decreases in the advanced industrial countries according to the IEA's intermediate "new policies" scenario--the one it seems to consider most probable--demand for oil and coal in China, India and other developing countries increases by a significantly greater amount.

It once again reiterates the efforts required to restrict warming by 2 deg this century - between now and 2035, China would have to account of 32 percent of CO2 abatement and the United States 18 percent.

Things are not really changing are they?! Reminds one of what Darwin said: it is not the intelligence or strong species that will survive, but the one most adaptable. Well, we humans are resisting change. Make your own inferences!

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Ecological deficit

This year's Human Development Index (HDI) came out last week and it was full of good news. The HDI started out 20 years ago to provide a way of indexing development and progress that gives a fuller picture of human well being than GDP's shallow economic calculations. This year's report celebrates the fact that over the past 40 years “average life expectancy rose from 59 to 70 years, primary school enrollment grew from 55 to 70 percent, and per capita income doubled to more than $10,000.”

The main threat, which haunts the report, is climate change. And it is the poor south that will be affected most.“The main threat to maintaining progress in human development comes from the increasingly evident unsustainability of production and consumption patterns. .... The consequences of environmentally unsustainable production are already visible. Increased exposure to drought, floods and environmental stress is a major impediment to realizing people’s aspirations. .... The continuing reliance on fossil fuels is threatening irreparable damage to our environment and to the human development of future generations.”

It notes how cities will play a significant role, being directly dependent on external supplies of food, potable water, and energy. With over 40 percent reductions in staple grain crops, conflicts will rise. Increasing energy use in cities will aggravate the situation. The US and China are prime examples of how there is no attempts at change.

Reports like the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment show that the capacity of the world's ecosystems to provide key services are in decline. Going into a century of rapid climate change with already depleted ecosystems is a frightening prospect. Can we effect a change in our urban systems to make it less dependent on ecosystems?

Honeycomb conductors

Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory have fabricated transparent thin films capable of absorbing light and generating electric charge over a relatively large area. The material, described in the journal Chemistry of Materials, could be used to develop transparent solar panels or even windows that absorb solar energy.

This means less material used and increased efficiency.

Under carefully controlled conditions, the material self-assembles to form a reproducible pattern of micron-size hexagon-shaped cells over a relatively large area (up to several millimeters.

Such honeycomb-patterned thin films have previously been made using conventional polymers like polystyrene, but this is the first report of such a material that blends semiconductors and fullerenes to absorb light and efficiently generate charge and charge separation.

The material remains largely transparent (hence does not render the window dark) because the polymer chains pack densely only at the edges of the hexagons, while remaining loosely packed and spread very thin across the centers. The densely packed edges strongly absorb light and may also facilitate conducting electricity,while the centers do not absorb much light and are relatively transparent.

Well, fabrication as solar panels is the next step. Materials research and design is one area to watch out, and not only in the solar arena.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Evergreen agri

Doubling food production by mid-century, particularly in Africa and Asia, will require non-conventional approaches, particularly since so many of the continent's soils are depleted, and farmers are faced with a changing climate. Experts feel the urgent need to reinvent agriculture in a sustainable and affordable way, so that it can reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases and be adapted to climate.

The world has to develop a concrete action plan for linking agriculture-related investments, policies, and measures to transition agriculture to lower carbon-emitting, climate-resilient growth. Step in Evergreen Agriculture.

Fertilizer trees draw nitrogen from the air and transfer it to the soil through their roots and leaf litter, replenishing exhausted soils with rich sources of organic nutrients. The trees bolster nutrient supply, increase food crop yields, and enhance the production of fodder, fuel and timber.

These systems also provide additional income to farmers from tree products, while at the same time storing much greater amounts of carbon than other agricultural systems. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already noted that transforming degraded agricultural lands into agroforestry has far greater potential to store carbon than any other managed land use change.

Evergreen agriculture has already provided benefits to several million farmers in Zambia, Malawi, Niger and Burkina Faso. For example, farmers in Malawi have increased their maize yields by up to 280 percent when the crop is grown under a canopy of one particular fertilizing tree, Faidherbia albida. Unlike most other trees, Faidherbia sheds its leaves during the early rainy season and remains dormant during the crop-growing period. This makes it highly compatible with food crops. In Niger, there are now more than 4.8 million hectares of millet and sorghum being grown in agroforests that have up to 160 Faidherbia trees on each hectare.

A word of caution: what fits Africa may not be best for Asia. There is already a lot of hype on endophyte (a micro-organism) based agriculture that helps do away with a large part of chemical inputs. However, one needs to be careful not to overdo it, and upset the ecosystem balance.

Thermo chemical way to solar

Back to solar! Currently we depend on the photovoltaic cells that transform light energy into electricity. Thermo-chemical technology on the other hand traps the solar energy and stores it in the form of heat in molecules of chemicals. This heat energy can be converted and utilized by humans whenever the need arises.

What happens in a conventional solar system is that heat gets leached away over time but when, heat is stored using the thermo-chemical fuel it remains stable. cCemical-electrical process makes it possible to produce a “rechargeable heat battery” that can repeatedly store and release heat gathered from sunlight or other sources.

Fulvalene diruthenium can absorb solar energy. After trapping solar energy it can achieve a higher-energy state where it can remain stable ad infinitum. If a stimulus can be given in the form of heat or a catalyst, it reverts to its unique shape, releasing heat in the process.

Professor Grossman states, “It takes many of the advantages of solar-thermal energy, but stores the heat in the form of a fuel. It’s reversible, and it’s stable over a long term. You can use it where you want, on demand. You could put the fuel in the sun, charge it up, then use the heat, and place the same fuel back in the sun to recharge.”

The MIT team has to tackle the challenges lying ahead. First they have to find out an easy way to synthesize the material in the laboratory that can absorb and trap heat inside it and secondly they have to search for a good catalyst that can release the trapped heat energy without problem.

Citi-smokes


With half the world population living in cities, it is well that cities gear up to meet climate change challenges. London, New York and Toronto have signed up to report their carbon emissions as part of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP)’s new cities programme.

In partnership with the C40 and Clinton Climate initiative (CCI), CDP Cities is asking the world’s largest cities that have committed to tackle climate change – the 40 member cities and 10 affiliate members – to start voluntarily monitoring and reporting their carbon emissions.

New York has monitored its greenhouse gas emissions and made the data public since 2006 and is already seeing a reduction in emissions, according to Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

CDP has also released a report, The Case for City Disclosure, that discusses how releasing emission data can help cities reduce carbon, improve operational efficiency and drive clean tech investment. (Incidentally, Enzen brought out an inventory for the pollution control board of greenhouse gases arising from transport in Bangalore and surrounding cities. This was the first of its kind in the country.)

An exhibition on in London paints a rather grim picture of climate change and the city. Sometimes one needs to exaggerate to catch the public eye. "Postcards From the Future," a new show at the Museum of London, is an artistic and apocalyptic vision of how climate change could affect London. Not entirely true, it is close to fact.

It's a chilling and scary sight. London after global warming: a square turns into a rice paddy, ice skating down the Thames, Buckingham Palace surrounded by a sea of shanty housing and camels across a park.

It's now or never as we have been told so many times, and still ignore. To change.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

New production paradigms

Every bit of energy that is saved goes a long way in securing the needs of present and future generations. So also every bit of material that necessitates more mining of some metal or ore. Finally, any innovations to production processes that reduce wastage and minimise energy and material is welcome.

Flexible circuits can be found in many devices where space and weight considerations are dominant in the design of electronics: in cars, in cameras and video equipment, in mini-computers or in inkjet printers. According to the business consultancy Frost & Sullivan, sales in this area will grow to more than $16 billion by the year 2014.

No wonder research in this area is leaping in bounds. A new reel-to-reel technology for the production of flexible circuits and biosensors, known as "P3T," which is shorthand for "Plasma Printing and Packaging Technology" involves considerably fewer process steps than existing processes, and it conserves raw materials.

During production of circuits for an RFID antenna, you often have to etch away between 50 and 80 percent of the copper used. This results in considerable amounts of copper scrap that either has to be disposed or reprocessed using relatively elaborate methods. The IST approach is different: there, scientists use the additive process to apply the structures they want directly to the substrate sheeting.

Researchers are currently working very hard to improve the individual processes involved in the manufacture of flexible circuit boards and biosensors. They are closely scrutinizing all of the P3T production steps -- from plasma printing to assembly and coordinating all of the processes with one another in a production line.

Technological improvisations are headed in the right direction, what is lagging is the change in attitudes, especially when it comes to individual lifestyles. We still are used to a season of plenty.